YOU’VE GOT HEAT
Volume 2 Turning Up The Heat
Introduction
Starting with an initial cash amount of $2,000, after the first twenty-six gambling
trips of my card-counting avocation I had finished with a bankroll of $10,000
as detailed in my first book You’ve Got Heat. Okay ? so far so good. Now
I could increase my stakes to include $25 minimum blackjack tables with a viable
spread.
Even though it had taken me four years to achieve a $10k bankroll, I had mixed
feelings. On the one hand I was proud of my accomplishment: but on the other
hand, I didn’t expect it to take so long. I know guys who have played
less conservatively and had won a $10k bankroll in just a few trips. Of course
you only heard about their success stories and not their failures. What about
all the would-be card-counters who had busted out and quit the game? I didn’t
want to join their ranks. Being risk-averse by nature, I had felt that if I
followed the conventional wisdom on bet sizing and spread, I would slowly and
steadily increase my winnings. This turned out to be true.
Now I had a choice. I could continue to play conservatively, and keep grinding
out my EV (Expected Value) hour after hour with small risk to my hard-won bankroll,
or I could adopt an all-out attack strategy, overbet my bankroll and hope to
perhaps double my $10k in a much shorter time span ? but with much greater risk.
In either case, whichever method I chose, I would still be subject to the whims
of mathematical variance. The thought of going to a more aggressive strategy
would be chancy but there would be much to gain (but much to lose as well).
What if I were to take my $10k and go to a max bet of $300 or $400? Or two hands,
of say, $250? All along, during those first twenty-six trips, I had been slowly
increasing my spread and max bet ? now up to $150 ? while trying to lower my
percent risk-of-ruin. And it had worked out in the end. According to John Auston’s
BlackJack Risk Manager 2000 program, if I now adopted the more aggressive method,
my chances of losing my entire hard-won $10k bankroll would increase from 6.73%
to 23.86% ? approximately three-and-a-half times more risky.
If I lost my entire bankroll, it would be much harder to raise a new playing
stake than it was back in 1999 when I started. My living expenses had gone up,
and recently I even had to borrow $2,000 from my current bankroll to pay in
full for a new 2007 Honda Accord SE. I needed the car because my 1994 Accord
had suffered “total loss” damage in a car accident late in 2006
.
I finally decided it was too much of a chance. One bad session could set me
back several prior trips’ worth of winnings. In fact, a bad run of several
sessions could wipe me out completely. Then I’d have to start all over
again and the thought of that was just too horrible to contemplate. The upside
looked pretty, but the downside was just too dangerous. Besides, the slow-but-steady
approach had worked out for me, despite the long time that it took. I decided
to stick with the method that got me this far, take my time, and keep slowly
increasing the bankroll, despite the extra time and work involved. Just like
a sports team with a winning season, the smart strategy is to conserve your
lead, protect your players, and don’t take any unnecessary chances.
And so I set out upon the second part of my quest. You’ve Got Heat –
Volume 2: Turning up the Heat covers trips # 27 through # 46 ? twenty forays
? mostly to Las Vegas ? in which I would hopefully continue to build my bankroll
from my present low-green stakes into a black spread. Then I could win more,
do it more quickly, and get better comps. Instead of casino rates, I’d
get comped rooms with a single phone call to a host. I’d get gourmet room
comps instead of the coffee shop ones I had been getting. Show tickets, airfare
reimbursement, and free tournament entries ? all these perks beckoned.
Also, I’m hoping there might be a third book. The first one detailed my
efforts with red chips, the second (this) book describes my work with a green
spread, and hopefully the future third book would describe my employment of
a true black spread.
I hoped that my winning trips would now yield consistent win totals in the $4k
to $6k range. That way, I could perhaps double the present $10k in just a few
winning trips. And I could go onwards and upwards from there.
As you’ll see, it’s harder than it sounds. Wish me positive variance
(luck)!
Cheers,
Barfarkel